Sunday, 29 April 2018

Market Brief for 30th April 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant





Once again amid mixed news flows, and expected positive earnings, the market last week remain in the range and manage to do well on Friday to end the week finally on positive note. The range bound trade is expected to continue in the market with the bias of upside until the crucial forthcoming Assembly Election of Karnataka, Since the earning factor is behind us reporting moderate growth one should closely watch for the upcoming monsoon, Govt. Reform policies, Inflation and the outcome of Assembly Elections of Karnataka, all this factors are very critical for market and the behaviour of the market will depend on what unfolds. The positive outcome of above fundamentals can surely see sharp rally in the markets upwards and any measure negative news like the loss of elections by BJP Govt, poor monsoon and slow down in reforms could slide the market down to even test initially 10400 but perhaps even 10000 and lower
Technical – The Nifty have broken out from an important level of 10600, Going forward if its manages to stay above this level then it will move higher, However since the market have gone up at a slower momentum, hence if it fails to cross the resistance of 10900 and goes below 10600 it will witness a secondary selloff and this correction would take the market to 10400 or even to 10000. The broader range for the market is 10400 and 10900 and extreme short term range is between 10800 and 10500

Investor should remain stock specifically optimistic on the market, but should refrain from investing in Stocks with higher Debts and poor governance. One is further suggested to be atleast 10% to 20% in cash.

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Friday, 30 March 2018

Market Weekly Report by Imtiaz Merchant



Market Brief – AS SUGGESTED MARKETS TRADED NERVEOUSLY IN A RANGE, GOOD AND THE BAD NEWS POURED IN AND KEPT THE MARKETS ON THE EDGES, AND WITH SHORTER WEEEKEND, THE MARKETS MANAGED TO END THE WEEK ON POSITIVE NOTE, THOUGH THE DAY AND THE MONTH CLOSED LOWER.THUS CONFIRMING A NEAR TERM RANGE BOUND TRADE TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE, GOING FORWARD THE MONSOON FORCAST, 4TH QUATER RESULTS , ECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS CUES  AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY ARE THE FACTORS CRITICAL TO MARKET,  HENCE ONE NEEDS TO SEE THE PROGRESS IN THEM CLOSELY.  UNLESS THIS IMPROVES MARKETS WILL AT BEST REMAIN IN A RANGE OR DRIFT DOWN ON ITS OWN WEIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE LONG-TERM GROWTH IS INTACT.

Technical MARKETS ARE IN A CRTICAL RANGE BETWEEN 10000 AND 10450 AT BEST ON THE HIGHER SIDE, TRADE AND A CLOSE BELOW 10000 THE NIFTY WOULD TEST 9800 AND THEN 9700 FROM WHERE, A SHARP BOUNCE IS EXPECTED. THE VOLITILITY HOWEVER SHALL CONTINUE FOR QUITE SOME TIME PERHAPS THE BETTER PART OF THE YEAR.
ON THE HIGHER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESITENCES THAT WILL DISALLOW THE MARKETS TO PROGRESS IN THE NEAR TERM UNLEES THE FUNDAMENTAL IMPROVES. 10250 TO 10450 IS A TOUGH RESISTANCE OR A SUPPLY AREA. THE TESTIMONY OF THIS IS THAT MOST OF THE TRADED STOCKS ARE IN A SHORT TERM TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND, HENCE IT IS VERY DIFFICUKT FR THE MARKETS TO TAKE OUT RESISTANCE, WE CAN CONVINEIENTLY CONCLUDE THAT THE MARKETS ARE IN A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND.

INVESTORS SHOULD EXIT FROM WEAK STOCKS IN RALLY AND HOLD ON TO BULLISH STOCKS PATIENTLY, MOREOVER A CASH LEVEL OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT SHOULD BE MANTAINED, UNLESS THE TREND GETS MORE VIVID.


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Sunday, 25 March 2018

Sensex, Nifty turn weak and volatile on global trade war fears





The markets last week open lower and on the back of negative news flows both domestically and internationally triggered downside and finally ended the week on Friday on negative note, down almost 2 percent for the week. More downside in Indian equity market is not ruled out since the oil price firming up, some political uncertainty on fore and a trade war, a protection trade policy announced by US against China is expected to lead markets of more downside, although the domestic news flows in the US were good with one of the lowest unemployment rate and rise in interest rate thus giving hope for more demand , could lead to a recovery in Global markets but now needs to be seen how it unfolds, forthcoming March quarterly result will be looked upon closely and would further act as a trigger for the markets to take a directional course. Investor’s at this juncture should be wise enough to be at least 15 to 20 percent in cash to be deployed after stability emerges in the market.

Technical– Technically the markets look weak and sceptic, with poor internals. In the near-term markets are likely to see 9800 and followed by 9700 in the near term. The valuation will get attractive and buying will see a range bound trade between 9700 and 10300, the paramount resistance is placed at 10700 and a close beyond that markets will get bottomed out, however a close below 9600 the market will see swift downside for the Nifty to test 9100 to 9200. On the higher side a close above 10700 will see new high.


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Sunday, 18 March 2018

Bloodbath in stock markets

Market Brief – With mix news flows the markets remain volatile during the week and ended the week lower, although the Global markets did well but Indian markets were jittery due to some political upheaval with BJP losing all the Lok Sabha by polls and TDP Govt. Of Andhra Pradesh withdrew there support with NDA further breed uncertainty. Going forward Quarterly results of March, Monsoon forecast, Outcome of political uncertainty, Crude & Commodity prices and Global markets cues will all determine the market trend. Since uncertainty and volatility has gone up Investors are suggested to remain partly in cash say about at least 15% to 20%, to be deployed once the stability is back in the market, Nevertheless it appears that market during this year 2018 will continue to remain volatile, Assembly and General Election and implementation of reformed process will be instrumental for the markets. A cautious and stock specific approach should be the order of the day.    
TechnicalTechnically market looks weak and vulnerable for more fall, a trade and a close below 10000 would swiftly extend the correction initially to 9800 and then 9600. On the higher side 10500 – 10650 is a tough resistance area and unless the Nifty closes above 10650 it would remains under selling pressure, the Short term range for the market is 10140 (the low registered on Friday 16th March) and 10400 on the higher side and the broader range would be 10000 on the lower side and 10400 on higher side. Although the market look weak and vulnerable in Short and Medium Term, but the long Term Trend is still up. 
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Tuesday, 7 June 2016

Indian Equity Markets – The Weekly Report By Imtiaz Merchant



On the back of mixed news flows and the news flows likely to come next week, the Indian markets traded in a relatively smaller range and reduced volatility last week. It closed the week higher but with far too less a percentage as compared to the previous week. RBI policy, Global markets, crude prices, the much awaited monsoon and policy initiative by the government will determine the trend going forward. The current earning seasons ended relatively better with quite a lot of companies reporting results better than the expectations, hence the market held its head high to finish the week above 8200 first time since October 2015, signifying the inherent strength.


Technically, the market is poised for more upside in the near term but would face major resistance between 8340 and 8400 levels and until 8400 is surpassed on close basis the markets could remain in broad range and will be very stocks specific. On the lower side, supports for Nifty is available between 7900 and 8000 and so long as Nifty holds 7900 on close basis the markets will be in the favor of bulls therefore lower levels can be used for selective buying. In the best case scenario, if the markets manage to breakout 8400 it would certainly test the 8650 to 8800 level.



This is a very stock specific market thus investors should be prudent in selecting the stocks, and the most sensible way is to invest in companies that have least debts and good corporate governance. The portfolio as a whole should be well balanced with sectors and size like the auto, consumer good & services (discretionary & non discretionary), information technology and selected stocks from industrials & capital goods sector. One should also ensure that at least 50 to 60 percent of one's portfolio has large size companies in terms of value and it is wise not to invest more than 10 to 12 percentages in one stock of one's portfolio. This will ensure that the risk is well spread and the portfolio is more insulated from risk.

'Buying when others are selling despondently and selling when others are buying greedily requires great fortitude and wisdom, but would yield the highest reward'



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